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Archive for December, 2009

Cash Flow Forecasting: Advanced Techniques

Tuesday, December 29th, 2009

The biggest mistake corporate treasury and finance professionals make when cash flow forecasting? “Not making clear the operating assumptions that drive the financial valuation, and then not monitoring the realization of benefits during the integration of the business over time,” says Henry Osti, managing director of Osti & Associates.

Osti, who will speak in AFP’s Advanced Approaches to Valuation Incorporating Unique Cash Flow Risks Webinar on Jan. 7, 3:30 pm ET, says valuating a business is especially difficult today. “The factors that drive the value of a business including cash flow, risk and financing, have all been tremendously impacted by the recent changes in the economy,” he says. “It is critical to understand how to model the impact of these factors in mergers, acquisitions and business valuation.”

Also speaking in the Webinar:

  • Danny Huff, EVP & CFO, Georgia Pacific
  • Fred Ryder, Senior Vice President, Corporate Strategy and Development,
    Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Florida
  • Doug Cox, CFO, Arkema

The Webinar will cover:

  • The techniques for valuing a business
  • Benefits and disadvantages of valuation techniques
  • How to rank order business value drivers
  • How to apply risk-based techniques in valuing a business
  • How to value business synergies in a fact-based manner
  • Determination of specific factors that drive business value
  • How to make projections for business value drivers in uncertain times
  • Risk-based business valuation using Monte Carlo methods.
  • A case study of Georgia Pacific’s acquisition analysis.

This Week in Corporate Finance

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009

Global Capital Markets

JPMorgan sold $4 billion of 13-month extendible notes with a final maturity in December 2015

Travelers raised $500 million selling catastrophe bonds, the biggest issuance this year of securities that allow investors to bet against natural disasters.

U.S. Treasuries

Treasuries dropped, pushing 10-year yields to the highest level in four months.

The yield curve widened to a record as investors bet an accelerating recovery will fuel inflation and hurt demand for unprecedented government debt sales. (more…)

This Week in Corporate Finance

Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009

Global Capital Markets

Abu Dhabi provided $10 billion to help Dubai World, the state-owned holding company, avoid defaulting on a $4.1 billion bond payment that roiled global financial markets during the past month.

Companies with credit ratings below investment grade have sold a record $150.6 billion of U.S. corporate bonds this year as borrowers take advantage of surging demand for debt securities after last year’s credit freeze. Sales of high-yield, high-risk junk bonds compare with $149.1 billion in all of 2006, the previous high.

Corporate bond sales in Europe are exceeding the amount raised through bank loans for the first time, with issuance by non-financial companies doubling to a record 337 billion euros this year. Syndicated loans, or debt underwritten by a group of banks which they then sell to investors, fell 46 percent to 279 billion euros

Westpac Banking Corp. raised A$2 billion ($1.8 billion) from bonds backed by home loans in the first such sale by one of Australia’s top four lenders since the financial crisis began in 2007.

Brazil sold $500 million of 10-year bonds in the country’s fifth international dollar bond offering this year.

Denmark’s record $115 billion mortgage-bond auction drew yields at the lowest level since adjustable interest-rate loans were started 13 years ago

Panama scrapped a plan to sell $760 million of bonds through a state development fund after the offer sparked a rout in the country’s debt.

Leveraged-loan returns surpassed 50 percent this week as new bank debt, sold by companies seeking to pay for buyouts, issue dividends or refinance borrowings, rose in the secondary market.

U.S. Treasuries

Treasuries headed for a weekly gain, trimming this year’s loss, as stocks fell around the world on concern the global economic recovery will slow. (more…)

Kaitz Discusses Outlook Survey on CNBC

Wednesday, December 16th, 2009

AFP President and CEO Jim Kaitz spoke to the folks at CNBC this morning about AFP’s 2010 Business Outlook Survey and a continued “overwhelming cautiousness” on the part of financial professionals when it comes to an economic recovery. “We’re not going backwards but I’m not sure we’re running ahead too quickly, either,” Kaitz told CNBC’s Squawk on the Street program.

The survey – underwritten by Wells Fargo -  found that significant hiring won’t begin at most U.S. companies until well into 2011, even though the U.S. economy will continue its modest recovery next year. More than 1,000 professionals in finance departments across the U.S. responded to the survey, which was conducted by AFP’s research department from Dec. 1 to Dec. 11.

When hiring begins, most finance professionals expect payroll growth to be modest at first. Of organizations surveyed, 25 percent anticipate returning to pre-recession staffing levels in 2011; 32 percent expect a rebound in 2012; and three out of ten do not expect their organizations ever to return their payrolls to pre-recessionary levels.

“Job growth next year really doesn’t look all that optimistic,” Kaitz said on CNBC. “I think it really reflects the cautiousness in the economy.”

This Week in Corporate Finance

Tuesday, December 15th, 2009

Global Capital Markets

BlackRock Inc., and Time Warner Cable Inc. led a 75 percent surge in U.S. corporate bond offerings this week as issuers took advantage of the cheapest relative borrowing costs in almost two years to refinance debt. Sales of $22 billion compare with $12.6 billion last week. New York-based BlackRock issued $2.5 billion of debentures to repay commercial paper in its first bond sale in two years. Time Warner Cable, also located in New York, sold $2 billion of notes as the second-biggest U.S. cable television-operator raised cash to reduce bank debt and commercial paper.

Mexico is issuing its first yen-denominated bonds, placing 150 billion yen ($1.7 billion) in Japanese markets. The Treasury Department says the so-called Samurai Bonds are 10-year instruments maturing in 2019, with a 2.22 percent interest rate

Kia Motor’s Corp.’s U.S. unit plans to raise $300 million from the first kimchi bond sale in more than two years as it seeks working capital for a new factory.

Wind Acquisition Holdings Finance SA is raising 500 million euros ($740 million) by issuing Europe’s first payment-in-kind notes since the credit crisis started in 2007.

U.S. Treasuries

Treasuries declined, with the yield gap between Treasury 2-year notes and 30-year bonds reaching the widest since at least 1980 amid lower-than-forecast demand for the $74 billion in notes and bonds auctioned in the week. Treasury 10-year notes fell for a second consecutive week as reports showed consumer confidence and retail sales rose more than forecast. (more…)

Derivatives Exemption Crucial to AFP Members

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009

AFP convened a group of Washington decision-makers and corporate end-users in New York on Monday to discuss the latest in over-the-counter derivatives reform.  Reforming and regulating the OTC derivatives markets is a key pillar of a massive regulatory reform package moving through Congress. The House is debating its bill this week and could take a vote as early as Friday.

Among the participants at Monday’s symposium was Dan Berkovitz, general counsel for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission; Scott Eckel, a financial services policy advisor in the office of Rep. E. Scott Garrett (R-NJ); and Mike Connolly, treasurer of Tiffany & Co. and vice chairman of AFP’s board. Connolly is no stranger to the issue. In September, he was the only corporate practitioner on a panel discussing OTC derivatives reform before a joint hearing of the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Connolly said at Monday’s symposium that Tiffany uses derivatives as “prudent risk management” tools and urged other corporate end-users to “make sure we’re not one of the unintended consequences” of a bill that could increase costs of responsible risk management practices. Panelists suggested calling or writing Congressmen to be heard on the issue.

Derivatives, often traded speculatively, have taken considerable blame for last year’s maket failure, but many corporates deploy them not as speculative investments but instead to manage risk and maintain cost predictability. Proposals to regulate the OTC derivatives markets call for central clearing of derivatives trades through exchanges meant to mutualize risk among market participants and reduce the probability of systemic failure. Margin requirements, also part of legislative proposals, would increase the costs of derivative trading.  AFP and other corporate coalitions have called for a provision to exempt corporate use of derivatives as hedging tools from the clearing process.

This Week in Corporate Finance

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009

Global Capital Markets

Bank of America raised $19.3 billion selling securities at $15 apiece in the biggest sale of stock or preferred shares by a U.S. public company since at least 2000.

Nomura Holdings Inc. sold 1 billion euros ($1.5 billion) of bonds in what Japan’s biggest brokerage described as its debut international benchmark offering that pays a fixed rate, as it seeks to diversify its funding.

U.S. Treasuries

Treasury two-year notes fell the most since August as the U.S. economy lost the fewest jobs last month since the recession began and a Federal Reserve report said economic conditions had improved “modestly.” (more…)

Ag Committee Tackles Derivatives

Friday, December 4th, 2009

OTC derivatives reform was the topic of a Senate Agriculture Committee hearing Wednesday. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was among the witnesses to testify. Also on the list: Jiro Okochi, CEO of Reval, a derivative risk management and hedge accounting provider. Okochi told the full Ag Committee how the proposed legislation would impact derivatives end users.

“That was my first time testifying before Congress and it was quite an honor and privilege,” he said. “The consensus I sensed from the Senators’ questions to me and Geithner’s responses to their questions was they understand there needs to be special considerations for end users. The senators clearly recognize that end users weren’t to blame so hopefully the bill will have fairly broad exemptions.”

Okochi proposed adding a risk management policy stipulation to the legislation to avoid Congress creating carveouts — or, worse, leaving carveouts up to regulators. He also suggested exempting derivatives younger than 12 months, including FX forwards and swaps, single-currency interest rate swaps and commodity swaps that don’t physically settle. “These one-year swaps generally don’t pose much systemic risk,” said Okochi, who also reminded the committee that not exempting swaps sold for margining and capital will lead to the margining being passed on to the corporates, “which defeats the purpose,” he said.

This Week in Corporate Finance

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

Global Capital Markets

Cisco Systems and U.S. wireless carrier Clearwire led $96.9 billion of bond sales this month, the busiest November since 2006, as companies took advantage of near-zero interest rates.

U.S. corporate bond sales reached an annual record of $1.171 trillion as borrowers took advantage of low interest rates and surging demand for debt securities following last year’s credit freeze. Sales of investment-grade and high-yield, high risk debt compare with the more than $1.167 trillion that companies sold in all of 2007, the previous record. Last year, the total was $874 billion.

Companies sold a record $385.9 billion in the first quarter of this year as borrowers accessed the thawing credit markets. Corporate issuance was $331.9 billion in the second quarter and $268.4 billion in the third quarter.

Volkswagen and Vivendi led a more than three-fold increase in non-financial bond sales this week as companies rushed to take advantage of the lowest yields in four years.

China’s finance ministry completed its first sale of 50-year debt at a lower-than-expected yield as brokerages said life insurers purchased the securities.

U.S. Treasuries

Treasuries advanced the most this month after a proposal from Dubai to delay debt payments set off a slide in stocks and higher-yielding assets worldwide.

The Treasury sold $44 billion of two-year notes at a yield of 0.802 percent, the lowest on record, as demand for the safety of U.S. government securities surges going into year-end.

Swaps

Interest-rate swap spreads widened after Dubai’s attempt to reschedule its debt payments rattled investors and reduced demand for higher-yielding assets.

The difference between the rate to exchange floating- for fixed-interest payments and U.S. Treasury yields for two years, known as the two-year swap spread, widened 3.94 basis points to 33.19 basis points. Swap spreads are based in part on expectations for the London interbank offered rate, or Libor, and are used as a gauge of investor perceptions of credit risk.

Commercial Paper Update

The U.S. CP market contracted in the latest week, Federal Reserve data showed on Friday. It was the third weekly contraction in four weeks. For the week ended Wednesday Nov. 25, the size of the U.S. CP market fell by $10.7 billion to $1.257 trillion outstanding.

LIBOR

The cost of borrowing between banks fell. The British Bankers’ Association said the rate on three-month loans in dollars, the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor, fell to 0.2556 percent from 0.2606 percent

Money Market Funds

A group of investors including Ameriprise Financial Inc. won a victory when a federal judge ordered the Reserve Primary Fund to distribute its assets equally among all shareholders. 

Central Banks

Russia’s central bank cut its key interest rates to a record low in the ninth reduction since April.

Hungary’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to the lowest in more than three years today to speed the country’s recovery from its worst recession in 18 years, which helped slow inflation.

Vietnam raised the benchmark interest rate to 8 percent, the first increase since January, and narrowed the dong’s trading band to 3 percent from 5 percent.

Banking

U.S. “problem” lenders climbed to the most in 16 years and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s fund protecting customers against bank failures slipped into a deficit in the third quarter, the agency said.

Credit Ratings

Mexico’s investment-grade credit rating was lowered by Fitch. Fitch cut Mexico’s foreign debt rating one level to BBB, the second-lowest investment grade and in line with countries including Russia and Thailand, and changed the outlook to stable from negative. The downgrade was the first by Fitch since it gave Mexico an initial rating of BB in 1995 and the first by any ratings company since S&P cut it in the wake of the 1994 peso devaluation.

Los Angeles, the largest city in California by population, had its credit rating lowered on $2.94 billion of debt by Fitch, which said the city’s deficit next year will exceed 9 percent of revenue. Fitch said in a statement it lowered ratings to AA- from AA on $1.5 billon of general obligation bonds and to A+ from AA- on $1 billon of the city’s certificates of participation, or municipal bonds backed by the general fund, $25 million of judgment obligation bonds and $419.7 million of debt sold for the Los Angeles Convention and Exhibition Center Authority.

Rating Agencies

Connecticut plans to join Ohio in suing credit-rating companies for “negligent, reckless and incompetent work” in grading debt purchased by state pension funds.

M&A

Reliance Industries made a cash offer to buy a controlling stake in closely held LyondellBasell Industries AF, the bankrupt chemicals and fuels maker.

Windstream Corp., the rural U.S. home-phone carrier, agreed to buy Iowa Telecommunications Services Inc. for about $530 million in cash and stock to expand into Iowa and Minnesota.

CDS

Dubai’s attempts to delay debt repayments spurred an increase in the cost of insuring government and company bonds from default around the world and may curb lending throughout the Persian Gulf. The cost to protect U.S. corporate bonds from default rose to the highest in almost a month.

Currencies

The dollar dropped to a 14-year low against the yen.

Commodities

Gold climbed to the highest price ever, capping the longest rally in 27 years, as the dollar’s slump deepened and on a report that India’s central bank may add to last month’s 200 metric-ton purchase. Gold reached a record $1,189 an ounce and has rallied 13 percent since Nov. 2, after India said it bought bullion from the International Monetary Fund.

Dubai’s Lesson for Corporate Treasury

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009

While you were feasting on turkey last week, Dubai was eating $59 billion in bad loans.

A playground of the rich located in the Middle East, Dubai touted its man-made islands for sale to the world’s wealthiest home buyers. And Dubai World, the development arm of Dubai, thought it had the full financial backing of oil-rich United Arab Emirates. Wrong: The U.A.E. made it perfectly clear over the holiday weekend that Dubai had to clean up its own mess. Now Dubai is asking for a six-month reprieve on its debts.

The lesson for corporate treasury and finance professionals: There is no such thing as no risk.

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