Order me a spanakopita and call me done. I shall again start off this week’s review with an update on the Greek situation. Over the past weekend, the EU and the IMF provided additional insight and details as to the shape and size of the support package for Greece, should the need arise. The response of the market was very positive at the open on Monday, and Greek credit spreads tightened substantially. Unfortunately, as the week progressed, it became more and more apparent that the possibility that the Greek government would actually have to utilize the support package was increasing and investors shied away from Greek bonds. The credit spreads on Greek bonds returned to levels similar to before the recent support package details were announced. The credit spreads of the other PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) widened out in sympathy.
On a slightly brighter topic, M&A activity seems to be picking up: Mirant to merge with RRI Energy; Apache to buy Mariner Energy; talks of United and US Air combining; and Cerberus Capital’s leveraged buyout of DynCorp International. The large amounts of cash sitting on the balance sheet of organizations added to the more positive outlook for both the domestic and global economies, and are encouraging organizations to look for opportunities to grow. At the same time, investors are showing an increased willingness to take on more risky assets than we have witnessed since the beginning of the financial crisis.
Treasuries gained on the week. With no earth-shattering news this week, we moved around rather range bound. For the US Treasury 10-year note, we seem to be in a 3.70% – 4.00% world of late.
Corporate debt issuance continues to grow, even as corporate credit spreads are the tightest since November 2007, and the absolute levels are at the lowest levels since October 2005.
Financial Regulatory Reform jumped back in the headlines this week as rumors emerged as to what the Senate Agriculture Committee’s reform bill might contain. Over the past several weeks, the odds makers have been increasing the chances of a reform bill being created and signed by the President before this year’s mid-term elections. The largest bombshell of the week was the prospect of commercial banks having to divorce themselves from being derivative traders. With the five largest derivatives players having about 90 percent of market, there would be a substantial impact on those firms and the markets, if this rule where to be incorporated into law.
South Korea received an unexpected credit upgrade this week. Moody’s moved South Korea to A1 from A2. The upgrade was a function of the increased positive activity of the South Korean economy as well as the low unemployment rate that the country enjoys.
Back here in the US, we suffered our 50th bank failure. If the pace of bank failures continues on its current trajectory, we will experience our greatest number of bank failures since the peak of the S&L crisis back in 1989.